Restaurants, in some form, have been around since the days of the Greek and Roman Empires. The modern version had its roots in models built in hotels during the time of Carême to sophisticated free-standing operations under the helm of chefs like Ferdinand Pointe and Auguste Escoffier in the 1800-s and beyond. During the best of times these operations flourished in major cities and in unified neighborhoods in rural communities. During the worst of times many closed their doors while a few were able to hang on and fuel reinvigorated economies when the dark clouds did pass. Restaurants have been able to survive and thrive in cycles throughout history and they will likely do the same in the future. The question is, what will they look like?

Although many factors will contribute to the restaurant model of tomorrow, history does provide us with patterns that make predictability somewhat cyclical. We have seen, for instance, that convenience and technology have become the “new kid on the block” and as such did drive change; we also have plenty of evidence that after the newness wears off, there is a resurgence of classic cooking, established techniques, and the grandeur of the craft. As an example – 1960’s and 70’s saw the advent of quick service restaurants, pre-cooked or partially cooked convenience items for restaurants unable to afford large crews of cooks and bakers, and a commoditization of restaurant food making it difficult to distinguish one operation from another. Speed, cost-effectiveness, systems, and consistency were the driving force as the passionate restaurateur and chef found it difficult to compete. Then in the 1980’s there was a resurgence of the artisan as cooks and chefs became revered, cooking as a craft re-immerged, and menus once again boasted time-revered classics and contemporary interpretations.

The neighborhood bakery and bread bakers in particular, were prominent in nearly every community in the 1930’s and 40’s before taking a backstage position when large-scale commercial bakeries machined the process, eliminated the need for traditional bakers in exchange for process engineers, and Wonder Bread built strong bodies in twelve different ways. Restaurants closed their bakeshops in favor of buying commercial bread and desserts, and dessert became a commodity course void of personality. By the 1980’s consumers had grown tired of this unemotional product and flocked to bakeries where the craft and art of baking found a new window of opportunity. Artisan breads, flaky laminated products, and luscious signature desserts built by skilled professionals were once again the star of the show as restaurants either built bakeshops with talented pastry chefs and boulangers or bought from those craft local bakeries that made these products with passion and skill. So, what goes around, comes around.

An assumption can be made, that whatever the restaurant looks like in the future there will always be open doors for technological advances and retention of the craft and professionals who dedicate themselves to creating great plates of food.

Anyway, here is my totally unsubstantiated crystal ball look at the restaurant of 2030 and beyond. My twelve indicators of successful restaurants, today and in the future:

[]       YES, TECHNOLOGY WILL RULE THE DAY

Restaurants must become more efficient as the labor pool becomes increasingly challenged. The current model that is driven by large crews of employees is not sustainable in a market where prices have hit their limit. More than likely, this technology will focus on controls, prediction analytics, convenience ingredients, and new cooking technologies rather than robotics. However, quick service will certainly benefit from some level of robotic integration in the environment that requires little to no cooking skill or service technique. Consumers are becoming accustomed to kiosk or on-line ordering, self-service, and home delivery, so there is little doubt that this will continue. Failure to consider how technology might help an operation is a sure-fire way to lose control.

[]       CONVENIENCE WILL DRIVE MANY DECISIONS

“Does this need to be done in house?” This will be the most important question than an operator or a chef will ask. Is there a more convenient way to do this WITHOUT sacrificing quality? There will be plenty of smart people working on ways to ensure convenience, cost-effectiveness, and quality. Listen to them.

[]       SPECIALTY PARTNERSHIPS WILL MAKE RESTAURANTS SING

Convenience need not be a “cop-out”. The choice between building a space guzzling bakeshop and hiring a skilled baker or buying items from a high quality, artisan bakery in town deserves an easy answer – “Yes”. As a restaurateur, you are the final page in a book that begins with the source of your raw ingredients and continues through all the connecting points along the way until you put the final touches on a great plate of food that you can be proud of. Partnerships can lead to that result, but it is your ability to pull it all together and ensure that what the guest receives is the very best you can offer that will win the day.

[]       THE BIG WILL GET BIGGER

Yep, the chain operators will continue to dominate much of the food scene, and they do serve a purpose. They will have an insatiable thirst to grow so 2030 and beyond will see those smaller multi-unit operators being devoured by a handful of well-financed conglomerates. Those that maintain their focus on quality and service will win the day and service the needs of a population seeking an answer to their busy lives.

[]       THE SMALL WILL THRIVE THROUGH ENGAGEMENT

Those neighborhood restaurants that pay attention to the factors that impact their business while building strong relationships with the community, staying focused on consistency, and becoming the embodiment of hospitality, will always have a place in the hearts and wallets of residents. However, they need to be active, resilient, and creative to do so.

[]       THE CRAFT WILL RISE AGAIN IF THE INDUSTRY CHANGES

As in the past, what goes around will come around, although this time it might take longer. What fed the resurgence of craft restaurants in the 80’s, 90’s and beyond was the growth of culinary colleges, the media frenzy around cooks and chefs, and the connections that fresh food had on health. With fleeting enrollments in culinary schools and many closing their doors, the media lust for stories about chefs waning, and small regional farmers finding it difficult to survive, it will take a major shift back to LOCAL to bring about a return to the craft. Hopefully enough quality players will hang on and light the culinary fire for the next generation of great restaurants.

[]       THE CULTURE OF RESTAURANTS WILL BE DIFFERENT

Okay, this is the big one that will likely drive everything else. Even though, as I look back on 50 years in the business, I am proud of the relentless work, the crazy hours, and the culture of “yes chef” that was prevalent, I know that it can no longer work. The restaurant industry must and will change with some going along while kicking and screaming. The business will in the years to come, find ways to better reward, invest in, and care of its employees with reasonable work weeks, benefits, and some level of predictability. It will not happen without the changes listed above, and it will result in fewer employees, better training, more effective cost controls, and likely higher expectations during the hours that they work.

[]       FREE AGENCY AMONG CHEFS AND COOKS WILL BECOME MORE DIFFICULT TO MANAGE

Quality employees will be in very high demand, so those who are committed

and exceptional at what they do will carry a higher price tag and more control

over their work situations. Operators will seek out those employees placing

them in a free agency environment. Be prepared to pay for what you get.

[]       PRICES WILL HIT A CEILING

The answer will cease to be raising prices. Customers will revolt with their feet

as restaurant pricing exceeds their interpretation of value. The answer will

come through more effective menu planning, better use of less expensive cuts

of meat and different fish species, reasonable portion control, and kitchen

efficiency.

[]       SERVICE WILL BE THE DECIDING FACTOR

As much as menu and food quality plays a critical role in attracting and

retaining guests, it will be honest, sincere, consistent service that brings them

back.

[]       HOSPITALITY WILL DRIVE SUCCESS

Part of the service formula is and will be, the return of true hospitality. Look for

the return of the restaurateur as host and the face of a restaurant. As much as

the chef may determine the interest in product and that initial attraction to a

restaurant, it will be the personality and the handshake of the host that brings

them back time and again, developing guest ambassadors.

[]       THE RESTAURANT EXPERIENCE WILL TAKE ON A NEW LEVEL OF IMPORTANCE

It’s all about creating memories. This is the business we are truly in. Memories are not price tag exclusive, so restaurants from barbeque joints to drive thru operations; tapas restaurants to fine dining and bread bakeries to chocolatiers will need to focus on creating unique experiences for guests giving them little reason to take their business anywhere else.

PLAN BETTER – TRAIN HARDER

“People who cook, are the best people.”

www.harvestamericacues.com – BLOG

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