You made it through a pandemic and another economic downturn. You’re hanging on as gas prices soar and supply chain issues rear up their ugly head again. Somehow you have been able to weather the storm of a dwindling labor pool and customers deciding to get their meals delivered rather than fill your costly restaurant seats. So far, so good – maybe. What will come next? What neighborhood or world-wide calamity will strike next? I guess the best you can do is cross your fingers and hope that your somewhat lucky streak remains. Hmmm…does this work for you?

There are few things certain in life and even fewer in business, but there are realities that seem to hold true. First, Murphy’s Law always applies – if you don’t prepare for something, it will occur. Second, dot your “I’s” and cross your “t’s”, or someone else will. Third, If everything seems to be going well, hang on to your hat. And finally, you can’t change the past, you must deal with today, tomorrow may be an unknown but you still must prepare for it.

I know exactly what you’re thinking – “I’m up to my eyeballs in alligators, I don’t have time to prepare for the future!” Okay, I understand your thinking but challenge your logic.  Those who don’t prepare for tomorrow will eventually face future challenges when tomorrow becomes today. At that point, without preparation, today becomes chaotic, scary, hard to manage, and overwhelming.

So, let’s play out some future “what if’s” and see how you might prepare, today.

[]       ANOTHER PANDEMIC:

A once in a hundred-year pandemic? Something that will never happen again. Right?  Well, epidemiologist’s may disagree. Their research points to the inevitability of pandemics based on population growth, dramatically increased travel, shared economies, and vaccine availability in third world countries. So, is your business ready for the next Covid-like catastrophe? What’s your plan to stay afloat and even stand out if the unthinkable occurs again? Crossing your fingers is not a strategy.

[]       A DIFFERENT KIND OF COMPETITION:

Many family, neighborhood restaurants were surprised by the rise of quick service restaurants in the fifties and sixties. Everyone was confused by drive-thru restaurant windows. Who would have guessed that gas stations would become food destinations? What about the first operations to link to home delivery service beyond your pizza shop on the other side of town? On-line ordering, kiosk operations in lieu of counter help, and on and on. What’s next? Have you given it some thought? Why not bring other restaurateurs together for ideation and open dialogue about “what if?” Someone is already doing this – why not you? Crossing your fingers is not a strategy.

[]       WHAT IF GAS IS $6/GALLON:

Gas prices impact and will further impact – employees getting to work, customer desire to drive to your restaurant, the personal economic impact of drive thru restaurants, the cost of delivery to your operation and the surcharges that vendors will likely impose. How will you approach this?

[]       WHAT IF CLIMATE CHANGE MAKES CENTRALIZED FARMING IMPOSSIBLE:

So, you might brush this off as beyond the scope of your job, but climate changes impact on farming will raise the prices of essential ingredients, change the availability of anything, anytime, delivered anywhere if crop production and ranching are further impacted. Are you thinking about how to work with regional farmers and the impact of seasonality in your region? Are you considering how menus will change? Will you be forced to limit what is offered? Crossing your fingers is not a strategy.

[]       WHAT IF CASH DISAPPEARS:

Peeling off twenty-dollar bills to pay for a restaurant meal is becoming less and less relevant in a world where people can use a credit card in lieu of having money vs. in lieu or carrying money. Convenience for the customer also increases the likelihood of spontaneous sales and upselling through your service staff, but it comes with a price. Will a larger percent of your sales go to credit card fees? Are you thinking about this?

[]       WHAT IF YOUR LANDLORD DRAMATICALLY INCREASES THE COST OF LEASE RENEWAL:

Costs are escalating everywhere. Food cost and labor cost can, to some degree, be controlled, as can marketing, equipment purchases, etc. But rent or lease arrangements – not so much. Rents continue to rise and landlords, focused solely on ROI are standing their ground. What will you do if those arrangements jump past your threshold of pain? What are you doing now to prepare for a future of rising fixed costs?

[]       WHAT IF YOUR STATE BANS PROPANE OR NATURAL GAS IN KITCHENS:

Is this far-fetched? California led the pack due to the danger associated with earthquakes, but those concerned with mankind’s impact on climate change have their scopes focused on minimizing the impact of fossil fuels. Are you prepared for all electric, induction cooking, or other alternative methods of preparation? Planning for the future is essential and crossing your fingers that change never happens is a terrible strategy.

PLAN BETTER – TRAIN HARDER – ASK “WHAT IF”

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